Climate Action & Adaptation
Lloyd Climate Resilience Assessment
The Lloyd EcoDistrict, like many other neighborhoods, will be subject to global and regional climate change impacts that will have local effects on the people, buildings, infrastructure, and natural assets of the district.
The Lloyd EcoDistrict, like many other neighborhoods, will be subject to global and regional climate change impacts that will have local effects on the people, buildings, infrastructure, and natural assets of the district.
In partnership with RWDI, a firm dedicated to creating cities that are more efficient, sustainable, comfortable to inhabit, and resilient to natural disasters, we completed a preliminary climate resiliency assessment for the Lloyd EcoDistrict community.
The report considers the people and infrastructure of the business district during a projected timeline over the next thirty and fifty years, and identifies climate hazards based on a business-as-usual emissions scenario.
While the assessment is Lloyd-specific, most of the findings and recommendations apply to communities and the built environment across the Portland metro area.
The report identified three key climate hazards that the EcoDistrict needs to prepare for in the coming years. However daunting, the risk of each of these climate vulnerabilities can be mitigated by the thoughtful application of climate resilience mitigation measures. Dive into each of the hazards and mitigations:
Increased temperature
Portland and the Pacific Northwest are becoming accustomed to increased temperatures, leading to the possibility of extreme heat and the potential for drought. There are many impacts this climate hazard may have on buildings and properties in the Lloyd neighborhood, both to the individuals living and working in buildings and the infrastructure itself. (If you’re looking to resources and tips to prepare your apartment or home for extreme heat events happening this year, please see our Extreme Heat page here.)
Five of the primary impacts of Increased Temperature Extremes we have identified for the Lloyd built environment are HVAC Cooling Requirements in Buildings Exceeding Design Capacity, Stress to Outdoors Plants, Extreme heat in outdoor spaces, Increased cooling at peak electrical demand periods, and Increased degradation of building components and materials.
For each impact, we have identified two vulnerability areas: people and asset & infrastructure. Finally, for each of these climate hazards, potential adaptation measures are identified.
1. HVAC Cooling Requirements in Buildings Exceeding Design Capacity
People
- Increased thermal discomfort, agitation, and mental health stress, leading to potential increased in missed workdays.
- Increase risk of heat stroke.
- Increase number of hospitals visits due to respiratory problems.
- Increased risk to health of vulnerable populations,
- Low humidity rates, increased virus transfer.
Asset & Infrastructure
- Increased cost of HVAC equipment (capital and operational).
- Increased use and wear on HVAC equipment.
- Additional dehumidification requirements. risk to IT systems.
- Portable AC units adding demand to electrical system.
- Increased period of cooling (less down time for chillers/maintenance). Limits to ability to expand HVAC over time.
Adaptation
- Size cooling equipment to meet 2050 design criteria (making design allowances for a staged approach towards 2080 with the base design to be 20% oversized over 2050).
- Provide additional space in mechanical rooms to consider need for additional future cooling.
- Reduce cooling loads through high-performance envelope design including air tightness
- Prioritize critical spaces for space conditioning over others (e.g., temp and humidity levels are critical).
- Design for passive cooling (e.g., consider solar shading (structures, landscape), natural ventilation, geo-exchange, thermal mass w/ night flush).
- Relax interior setpoint temperatures during peak cooling periods (non-sensitive locations).
2. Stress to Outdoor Plants and Landscapes
People
- Walking paths / gardens negatively impacted by plant health.
- Loss of use/enjoyment of outdoor space (recreation, connection to outdoors).
Asset & Infrastructure
- Risk of landscape health.
- Additional water resources for irrigation.
- Poor plant health leading to increased windfall. Mature trees more susceptible.
- Grass areas when dry have potential for fires.
- Increased levels of dust impacting air quality.
- Increase in pest/infestation.
Adaptation
- Select planting based on drought resistance (Plant selection will focus on native / adapted plants that are resilient and appropriate to the local context).
- High efficiency drip, utilizing stormwater (below the soil, no access or risk to human health, and reduced evaporation).
- Onsite cisterns for water storage (complete with testing for water quality)
- Rainwater capture (rooftop).
3. Extreme Heat in Outdoor Spaces
People
- Increased thermal discomfort, agitation, and mental health stress.
- Increase risk of heat stroke and respiratory problems.
- Increased risk to health of vulnerable populations.
- If persistent, may result in odor and insects from garbage.
Asset & Infrastructure
- Intensified urban heat island effect.
- Thermal damage of exposed materials.
Adaptation
- Provide shaded external spaces with access to power and water services.
- Outdoor cooling station that can run on emergency power.
- Reduce heat island impacts by increasing soft landscaping (green) and reduce hardscape coverage.
- Increasing vegetation to provide natural cooling via shade and evapotranspiration.
- Reduce heat island impacts by selecting light-colored,reflective materials.
- Reduce (combustion engine) vehicle traffic during prolonged periods of heat to reduce heat gains and improve air quality.
- Encourage natural ventilation of outdoor spaces by allowing predominant summer winds to pass through open outdoor spaces.
- Drought-resistant landscape decisions (i.e., drought-tolerant native plant selection, drip irrigation).
4. Increased cooling at peak electrical demand periods leading to overload of electrical systems
People
- Risk of discomfort leading to heat stress if backup systems fail / undersized.
Asset & Infrastructure
- Increased reliance on back-up power systems.
- Power and load shedding procedures (prioritize vital spaces). Risk of running out of generator capacity.
Adaptation
- Prioritizing critical areas for backup power.
- Uninterrupted power system (UPS) for critical systems (fire alarm panel, lighting, IT equipment).
- Additional portable power supply (for critical and emergency equipment).
- Uninterrupted back up power for entire site.
- Increase backup power supply to cover longer durations.
- On-site renewable power production (peak shave, non-essential loads).
- Battery storage on site as a buffer.
5. Increased degradation of Building Components and Materials
Asset & Infrastructure
- Exposure of envelope and building components could result in reduced service life.
- Increased replacement costs.
- Sun exposure on rooftop equipment (more regular maintenance/painting).
- Building sealants (more frequent maintenance).
- Thermal expansion of material leading to failure
Adaptation
- Additional research and testing on various mitigation measures are needed.
Increased precipitation extremes
Future climate predictions for Oregon estimate that the total annual precipitation is predicted to increase, as is the number of heavy precipitation days and maximum 1-day precipitation events. Maximum 1-day precipitation is a measurement system where high values correspond to high chances of flooding. These combined factors are expected to increase precipitation in the winter months, and to occur in short periods, resulting in more extreme, intense, and frequent precipitation events.
Increased precipitation can be attributed to two primary factors: warming oceans and increased temperatures. Warmer oceans are caused by rising amounts of greenhouse gases in the atmosphere that reflects heat back to the Earth’s surface. In turn, these warmer oceans increase the amount of water that evaporates into the air, producing increased precipitation. Secondly, increased atmospheric temperatures (see increased temperature content) will cause more winter precipitation to fall as rain instead of snow. The combined effect of these climate-related changes will cause increased precipitation medians and extremes. This movement of water vapor throughout the air is concentrated into atmospheric rivers, essentially a band of clouds and precipitation, which are projected to increase by roughly 5-10% over western Oregon by the 2080 timeframe.
Increased precipitation, both in frequency and intensity, will lead to increased flood risk in Portland. Lloyd is susceptible to pluvial flooding, flooding related to heavy rainfall.
In understanding the impact of increased rainfall, we can now look at the four potential impacts this will have in Lloyd. We identified two vulnerability areas for each impact: people and assets & infrastructure. Finally, for each of these climate hazards, potential adaptation measures are identified.
1. Increased precipitation leading to flooding of building interiors.
People
- Risk loss of functionality and use of spaces.
- Potential water ingress leading to mold. Infection and other negative health impacts.
- Losses and damages increase mental health stress.
Asset & Infrastructure
- Water damage to façade and interior assets.
- Reduction in water quality.
- Loss of equipment use and potential damage when relocating.
- Water shedding capabilities of roofs and drainage outfalls.
- Risk of drainage that relies on pumps (redundancy/failure prevention).
- Risk of wind driven rain ingress.
Adaptation
The topology of the district, with slope towards the Willamette and to the south, will continue to provide good natural stormwater drainage generally away from the built infrastructure. In addition, to mitigate the risk of interior flooding from increased precipitation the following measures should be considered and implemented in the design:
- Locate critical equipment outside of high-risk flood areas (i.e., basements) with 500-yr flood plain elevation considered.
- Design storm and roof drainage to consider increased rainfall volumes due to climate change.
- Protect below-grade exterior foundation walls from moisture ingress.
- Keep flood mitigation supplies (spill kits/scrubbers) on hand to use in the event of a flood.
- Where necessary, select higher-performance, water-resistant building materials to reduce damage to building structure, envelope, and interior finishes.
- Where necessary, select mold-resistant materials.
- Backup potable water supply in case of water quality degradation during flood events.
By aggressively restricting and monitoring for water ingress, the co-benefit will be a dry interior, reducing the risk of mold growth and the associated negative respiratory impacts.
2. Increased precipitation leading to flooding of exterior spaces.
People
- Loss of accessibility.
- Increased risk of waterborne diseases.
Asset & Infrastructure
- Water damage to exterior infrastructure, landscaping, etc.
- Access issues for community, below-grade parking etc. most vulnerable.
Adaptation
To mitigate the risk of exterior flooding from increased precipitation, the following measures should be considered:
- Design site stormwater conveyance away from structures for increased volumes and flows.
- Slope lower level towards a dedicated location to allow for pumping of flood water.
- Maximize site permeability, including open-grid pavement systems.
- Sump pumps at lowest point of construction (e.g., below grade parking, elevator pits).
- Incorporate landscape features such bioswales with native plants to absorb and redirect water on-site.
- Sump pumps and alarms on emergency power.
- Consider flood risk when locating critical infrastructure outside of a building.
- Overflow water areas such as plazas designed as reservoirs and constructed wetlands (risk: mosquitoes).
3. Intense precipitation events potentially leading to stormwater and sewer backflow.
People
- Risk of loss of functionality and continuity of services.
- Potential water ingress and mold leading to negative health impacts.
- Losses and damages increase mental health stress.
Asset & Infrastructure
- Water damage to interior assets, reduction in water quality.
Adaptation
To mitigate the risk of stormwater and sewer backflow from increasing intensity of precipitation events, the following measures should be considered:
- Maintain stormwater drainage systems to ensure proper functionality (i.e., clean gutters and downspouts, inspect drains).
- Backflow prevention devices as part of storm drainage design.
- Low impact development (LID) practices with landscape grading and berms for exposed areas.
- Landscape design to integrate low-impact design strategies, such as rain gardens, bioswales, and permeable pavement.
- Protocol to test for potable water quality in the event of stormwater backflow events.
- Ensure equipment and devices follow FEMA 55 guidelines and FEMA technical bulletins and advisories for wet and dry flood-proofing.
By considering and restricting potential water ingress, the co-benefit will be a dry interior, reducing the risk of mold growth and the associated negative respiratory impacts.
4. Increased precipitation leading to waterlogged soil and potential instability.
People
- Risk of personal safety and security.
- Slip and fall issues on grass (off path).
- Risk of loss of accessibility and continuity of services.
Asset & Infrastructure
- Risk of erosion.
- Landslide causing damage to infrastructure.
Adaptation
To mitigate the risk of increased waterlogged soil and instability, the following measures should be considered:
- Add organic matter and/or organic mulch to the soil in order to break up heavy clay soils.
- Regularly aerate the soil to prevent compaction.
- Use cover crops on unused soil to protect its texture, breaking it up through root growth and adding extra organic material as it dies.
- Install a drainage system in the problem area.
Reduced Precipitation in Summer Months
In conjunction with increased precipitation, the climate assessment anticipates a decrease in seasonal rainfall during the summer months. The mean summer precipitation is expected to decrease across Oregon by nearly 8% by 2080 compared to a historic baseline. The National Climate Assessment shows that Portland is within one of the regions in North America expected to see the biggest changes (15+%) in dry days (RCP8.5 for 2080 timeframe, learn more about RCP’s here). Precipitation that falls during winter months is generally sequestered as snowpack at higher elevations, which eventually melts and is distributed to aquifers and local streams. However, predicted temperature increases are expected, which are predicted to reduce snowpack dramatically as more winter precipitation falls as rain instead of snow. These conditions are projected to increase winter runoff and decrease runoff during spring and summer leading to increased periods of regional drought.
1. Decreased precipitation leading to increased periods of regional drought.
Asset & Infrastructure
- Loss of plants and green space.
- Increased landscaping costs due to a need for irrigation.
Adaptation
To mitigate the effects of regional drought, the following measures should be considered:
- Landscaping with native plants, adaptable non-native plants, and natural ecological processes. These plants are already adapted to the region’s conditions, they are frequently drought tolerant meaning that little irrigation is needed. On top of this, they are often heartier meaning they can survive through the winter, effectively cutting costs on replacements.
Increased wildfire and smoke
Temperature and precipitation forecasts indicate a likelihood of longer periods of dry weather and anticipated drought conditions for future summers. The drier summer conditions, as a result of decreasing precipitation and decreased snowpack, are expected to lead to increased risk of regional wildfire activity. Climate change will be the main driver of wildfires and will contribute to increasing poor air quality from both regional fires and increasing fires throughout North America. The wildfire hazard zones produced by the City of Portland show that the Lloyd neighborhood is not in an area of direct risk from wildfire. Regionally, the number of wildfire occurrences is on the rise as well as an increase in very large fires.
The main risk to the Lloyd area from wildfire will be the poor air quality as a result of nearby or regional fires and smoke. Research has shown that particulate matter concentrations will increase significantly because of increased fire activity across North America. High levels of particulate matter in the air cause adverse health impacts and respiratory issues as well as being a known carcinogen. (If you’re looking to resources and tips to prepare for poor air quality, please see our Lloyd Prepares Air Quality Resources page here.)
Poor outdoor air quality from regional wildfire smoke will affect both people and our assets & infrastructure.
People
- Poor air quality can lead to an increase in health effects, particularly for vulnerable populations (pre-existing conditions, pregnant people, infants, elderly).
- Increased missed workdays.
- Odor issues/complaints.
- Limited visibility.
- Combined impacts with heat (can’t open windows for cooling).
Asset & Infrastructure
- Increased levels of fine particulate matter (PM) require additional filter maintenance and fan energy.
- Lack of space available for filtration equipment (no additional rack capacity).
Adaptation
Visit our air quality resources page for ways to prepare for smoke, and what to do when it is already present.
Read the full report here and watch an introductory webinar below.
Next Steps
Using the report’s findings we are now planning the next steps to better prepare the EcoDistrict for long-term climate change affect. We plan to do site/building-specific deep-dive studies and case-studies.